On August 7, 2011, UCM member Hari Thakur spoke to the congregation about the shift in geopolitical power. By popular demand, here is a transcript of that talk.
This morning, I hope to present to you a process of change that is taking place for quite some time now, but gathering pace with each passing year. The change relates to a shift in geopolitical power from the Western nations (Europe, U.S. and Japan) to the emerging countries (China, India, Brazil, Turkey, Indonesia, and South Africa). The presentation will be inspired by two recently published books, “Losing Control” by Stephen King, Chief Economist, HSBC Banking Group, and “The World is Flat” by Thomas Friedman, Columnist, New York Times. I have also consulted numerous other sources such as research reports newspapers and magazines.
Allow me to site some evidence of this shift without burdening you with too many numbers:
- According to recent forecasts by I.M.F. and Standard Chartered Bank, by the year 2020, the GDP of China will exceed that of the U.S., and India will attain the third highest GDP behind China and the U.S.;
- China has displaced the U.S. as the biggest trading partner for Brazil;
- Nearly two-thirds of world’s economic growth is coming from the emerging nations;
- China has displaced the World Bank and the Western nations as provider of capital to Africa;
- China has established 316 Confucius Institutes in 94 countries, with plans to set up 1,000 worldwide by 2020 to promote Chinese language and culture;
- In November 2006, China invited all African heads of state to promote economic relations. 48 of 53 heads of states attended. There is no such parallel in history;
- China is the principal provider of funds to finance U.S. deficits and holds nearly $1 trillion of U.S. debts;
- China has the highest foreign exchange reserve in the world, estimated at $3.2 trillion;
- In 2008, for the first time, the number of patent applications from China, India, Japan and South Korea exceeded those from the West.